My Worst Case Scenario For Thailand

I feel safe in Chong Khae. Why?  First I see nothing odd happening. Second, because this is still a virtual tribal land.  Draw a ten mile circle around our house and a large majority of the people are either family or friends of my wife.  This may happen in some rural communities in the US, but not to the extent it does here.  These people are sort of a buffer zone against bad things happening.  I’m not sure how this would manifest itself [a phone call:  time for the farang to take a powder] but I’m sure it would.

The worse case scenario probably is that the ruckus will disrupt the free flow of goods and services.  If I see the shelves in the WalMart-like stores I shop at getting empty, I’ll let you know.

Thailand is a north to south land.  I’ve seen the current conflict described as the middle class people in Bangkok fighting with the rural poor in the north and northeast of the country.  Maybe.  But more likely this is a Bangkok and land to the south versus the land to the north conflict.

All revolutions center on the ego of a single man: Chavas in Venezuela, Castro in Cuba, Yushchenko in the Ukraine, Bashar Al-Assad in Syria – in Thailand it is Thaksin Shinawatra.  His sister the photogenic Yingluk is the current PM (or, now since she called new elections, the caretaker PM).

Thaksin’s sins are – well he played fast and loose – while PM.  Much like Obama’s “you lost, we won” Thaksin had a vision for rural Thailand and pushed it hard.  You can’t go anywhere in Thailand without seeing homemade looking exercise equipment sitting outside.  I go by three sets of them on my one hour walk each morning and I even occasionally see people using them.  That was Thaksin.  He also promoted the $1 hospital visit.  My wife’s mother just spent two days in the Takhli hospital.  Total charge (including medicines) - $1.  There’s something to like here.

But Thaksin also became fabulously rich in robber baron ways.  His signature program (like BO’s ACA) was what is called a rice-pledging scheme to help the rural farmers in the north and north east of Thailand. Sounds laudable, but the government ended up playing twice the market price for the rice (and for votes).  The program was a quagmire of corruption.  If someone had asked me what was Thailand’s biggest crop, I would say the building of rice barns – big enough to put a Hindenburg or two in. . . . they are huge!  But the government never hired more than a few people to keep track of the program, so now the stored rice (two year’s worth by some accounts) is going bad by 10% a year.  The government can’t sell it because they paid too much, and now if they did dump it on the market, the price of rice in the world would plummet.  Whenever big government interferes with the free market, bad things happen.  Hard to believe but now Vietnam without any of the roads or infrastructure of Thailand, sells more rice.

The Shinawatra clan’s home is in Chiang Mai about seven hour’s drive due north from where I am.  It’s a beautiful place and home to many expats.  I love the elephant park there (with seventy elephants performing daily) and the cooler weather.  Thaksin was convicted of corruption after the military removed him from office in a bloodless coup, but he came back to a few years later to the Chiang Mai region doing “merit making” (giving money to wats) and wasn’t arrested.  All politics are local, I guess.

Here’s where my wild imagination takes a left turn.

Thaksin (who once bought an English football club and sold it when [some say] the English tough boys failed to waa him), now lives is Dubai.  He has a military education and also holds two law degrees from Eastern Kentucky and Texas (I don’t mean this in a pejorative way, but he man is use to getting his way.). Cambodia, to the east, has been feuding with Thailand over the owner ship or some ancient ruins – Thaksin since leaving Thailand has also been a governmental advisor to Cambodian – no doubt rubbing salt I the wound.

The Thais are gambling big on Myanmar to the west.  I was in Kanchanaburi (the River Khwai town on the Myanmar border) and was in the biggest Home Depot store I’ve ever seen. All this material was going west to Myanmar.  Thaksin has also been in Myanmar – doing “merit making” again.  The military is still in charge in Myanmar and Thaksin is a military man , so . . .

I’ve seen reports of tunnels (like the ones between the US and Mexico for contraband running) near the Myanmar border – where I use to have to go for my visa – big enough to drive golf carts through.  I have no idea if Thaksin was responsible for this under the table trade, but I don’t think it is a reach to say he knew about it.

This SE Asia region has a rich history of warfare.  My favorite is in the murals at the Emerald Buddha complex in Bangkok showing “the war with the monkeys.”  At the same complex – which I call the temple of Eastman Kodak because there are so many tourists you can’t get a clear shot – is a model of Ankor Wat in Cambodia.  Parenthetically, let me just say the two places I’ve ever been where I’ve been in awe of humans who came before are the pyramids in Giza and Ankor wat.  But there are stupas all over Thailand that are in the Burmese (Myanmar) design or the Cambodia design. These South East Asians have been going at one another for a very long time – who is to say they will stop.

There was a recent drive by in Trat, near the Cambodian border, and at Red Shirt (Thaksin clan) rally in Korat (also near the Cambodian border) the mob was applauding the deaths and shoot-‘em-ups recently in Bangkok.   Not good.

The farmers from the Central part of Thailand (here) were driving their tractors to Bangkok last weekend.  I incidentally saw eight identical New Hollands, I think, parked at a roadside restaurant – very unusually drinking Coke at the same time.  I think they were just talking, but . . .   The farmers were going to camp out at the airport south east of BKK to protest – well, not getting paid, even though they are supporters of the government..  But they got turned back by a minor politician from Ayutthaya (where we lived for a year) saying that he had talked to the PM and they would be paid (up to six months late) for the rice the government took, and they would be paid this week.  The Bangkok Post is suspicious because they had a government escort.  Like buying votes, if he government can pay some, but not all, they might live another day. 

Myanmar and Cambodia both have military muscle.  Thailand certainly does, too, but you can bet the military is divided between the two sides.  Yingluck, Thaksin’s sister and current (custodial) PM, had the good sense to make herself the head of the military.  She did this knowing that the military ousted her brother is a bloodless coup in 2006.  What better way to prevent that again than by being the head of the army?

The military for its part is standing on its head not to intervene.  One reason is that they were over their heads before and didn’t get very good press for the time they were in charge.  The International community [including the US] was nipping at their heels to hold elections.  “I hold elections and the same guys we just threw out get elected again.  Is that what you bastards want?”  Well, that’s what happened.  Once burned twice wary.  And of course their best generals (as Robert E. Lee) might go to the other side.  If they are sitting in the catbird seat, they want no part of it.

If there is a civil war (and I by no means think it is inevitable) Myanmar, the north and central part of Thailand, and Cambodia will cross a “T” across the top of the country.  If that happens Chong Khae – a place I live and love – may become a new Gettysburg.  

The one thing that may defuse this is if the King dies – and I am not wishing for that.

I’ll keep you posted.

FG 2/25/2014