Why Egypt matters to the US

US Economy

Gas price will soar even if nothing happens to the Suez canal. If the canal is blocked, look out. (F.Y.I., the word POSH I think comes from the canal when the British rules India. It stands for Port Side Out, Starboard Home. Before the days of A/C, staying out of the sun was the best you could do. You may hear this on the news soon.)

People who criticize Bush for giving the Eguptian military a billion plus dollars should realize that most of the money MUST BE SPENT in the US on weapons systems. If we stop doing giving them this money, it will just be another shock to the US economy. (Of course Democratic administrations have done the same thing over the years, too.). You usually hear about the money we give to Israel, not to other countries. I’ve always thought that when you add up all the money for Israel and Arabs, it’s kind of a wash.

Anyone who has been in Egypt knows that Egypt is very close to a third world country. Driving in from the airport you go by blocks and blocks of buildings that look like they are either being demolished or rebuilt. The truth, I suspect, is that neither the case. People are living here! After the back slapping over the revolt subsides, Egypt will expect more money – more money than the US or the world has.

Political

Obama was elected in part because Bush’s reputation was so low in the rest of the world. Now that things are going to hell in a hand basket, the Arab world is asking why doesn’t Obama do something. You and I know he can’t do a lot, but we should have been asking this when the campaign rhetoric was so one sided.

One thing I haven’t heard much of is the word Saudi. Saudi is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, but the news channels are saying very little. The extreme Wahhabi movement came from Egypt and into Saudi (26 of the 911 hijackers were Saudis). I think everyone is holding their breath that the riots do not spread to Saudi – and Dubai - that shinning city on the hill of the Arab world.

Having said that, I don’t think the riots in Egypt have much to do with Theocracy. But the Arab world does not have a good track record for the type of thinking democracy requires (neither does the US, I know). Flip Wilson can say the Devil made me do it, and we all laugh. But let some militant firebrand get up and say Allah requires it, and the Arabs fall in line.

Social Media

Social media is getting a lot of praise for helping the riots happen. I’m not sure this is a good thing. Social media, after all, is more conducive because of its brevity to slogans like “four legs good, two legs bad,” but anything that requires thinking beyond sound bites rarely happens there (here). It also tends to polarize political thinking, too (should I mention Obama again who used social media to such an extent in his campaign?).

And the future?

Who knows. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. As Mubarak and all his key people came out of the Egyptian army, they are as old as Mubarak. I think there may be a revolt in the ranks before the army actually does something. I had an Egyptian friend whose 30-year-old son was an officer in was in the Egyptian navy and still didn’t make enough money to get married. When I hear how respected the army is in Egypt, I bet that sentiment is not held in the ranks.

I remember live TV pictures of Will Mays catch in the World Series, amazing. I also remember Fidel Castro riding into Havana, and we all know how that worked out, don't we? Maybe not.